Why FormGenie Dutching Works
It's a remarkable and proven statistic (proofed to the Racing Post) that in over 50% of the most recent 10,000 races up to and including yesterday the winner came FormGenie's Top 2 or 3 rated selections*. We call these selections 'DUTCH'. This incredible consistency presents us with a fantastic opportunity to make regular and significant profits and this is how and why it works (especially when using the FormGenie-Bot).
- It's important to realise that these 'TOP' and 'DUTCH' selections are not simply 1st, 2nd and 3rd Favs based on industry forecast prices. A quick snap-shot of our results will demonstrate that our Dutch selections are the source of many good priced winners that were not at the head of the morning market/forecasts (you may be a repeat visitor to our results pages and witnessed this regularly). For example QUANTUM OF SOLACE was a FormGenie pick and won today at a best odds of 20/1 (bigger on Betfair) and was clearly not expected to win by the industry and other punters.
- Without FormGenie you cannot pick these winners with a similar strike rate just by looking at their forecast prices and morning favourites (plus you'd be backing at low odds too often). Many of these winners will be much shorter than forecast and many much bigger than the market anticipated. Note the forecast prices in our daily results tables and how way-off these can be. Try this for yourself today. Pick the top 2 or 3 (based on our #runners rule below) in the market per race and see if you achieve a 50% strike. You must include every single race though to compare with FormGenie.
- Supposing you are able to achieve a strike rate comparable to FormGenie's by using your own methods - how long would it take you? Can you sustain the mental energy required? Can you back date your strategy over the last 11,000 races and hit the target at least 50% of the time? Our selections are PROOFED to the Racing Post. You can contact them to verify AND we've been around since April 2006!
Why not back the Top-Rated only if FormGenie is so good?
An entirely valid question. Backing the Top FormGenie Top-Rated is fine and indeed we recommend it as in the last 365 days 10,000 bets on the Top-Rated to Win achieved a whopping 25% strike rate. (34% if you count each way placings at 5/1+). This includes ALL prices and 'no-hopers' up to 100/1 (every race has to have a top rated - though it doesn't mean it's a good bet). Now there is a better way to approach betting on horses. In days gone by it was thought of as too-much work to select more than one contender in a race. However, advances in technology means we can do so much more and so much quicker.
Chaos can happen in the race affecting the outcome
FormGenie must be pretty smart to pick the outright winner with a 25%+ STRIKE RATE (this is an average across the last 11,000 UK/Irish races which includes all odds, race types, goings, number of runners, turf/aw/jumps and flat). The strike rate can easily be improved upon by being selective in the races we ask FormGenie to predict. But sadly it's not always the case that the best horse in the race will go on to win.
There are many reasons for this chaos (not just because bookmakers rely on it). These include, but not limited to: pace of race may be completely different to expectations causing other runners to benefit. A bad ride by the jockey. Unlucky. Missing the start. Being too keen early on and expending too much energy. Horse unwell (it happens they are only 'human'!) FormGenie offers sound alternatives as a 'what if' insurance and we call this a 'Dutch' selection. These horses are deemed to be the most likely to Win if the Top-Rated doesn't oblige. And in over 50% of the last 11,000 races run in the UK/Ireland FormGenie was/most probably will be correct.
Bot exploits FormGenie's impressive Dutch strike rate
We believe in 'Safety in Numbers' and FormGenie is the brand name of the computer program whose algorithms we use to produce our computerised handicap ratings - as such we are using numbers. We can go further by not only automating our bets thus saving time and mental energy, but we can also add rules to improve our already solid strategy. FormGenie-Bot, is our own betting automation app that seamlessly links FormGenie ratings to BetFair markets and executes bets based on our own or user defined configurations.
For example: You can set FormGenie-Bot to adjust your stakes to win a fixed amount regardless of which Top Rated/Dutch selection wins. This not only means that getting the best odds is far less important it also means that you won't have to wait long for the next winner because we win over 50% of the time. That means FormGenie has picked the winner 5000 times from of the last 10,000 races. So you could set the bot to stop at a winner every day! This include races where at least 1 selection is a non runner - meaning we have less horses running for us - but we still achieve this remarkable strike rate.
FormGenie Dutch selections include a maximum of 2 selections in races up to 6 runners, 3 selections in races up to 14 runners and a maximum of 4 selections in races of 15 or more runners. If a Dutch or Top-Rated selection is a Non Runner we do not promote other horses. It simply means we have 1 less running for us (unless using FormGenie-Bot where non runners are automatically substituted with the next ranked horse).